Why You Should
NOT Invest Like Warren Buffett
Vahan Janjigian
Forbes Growth Investor

arren Buffett ranks as one of the greatest
investors of all time. Over more than three decades, his Berkshire
Hathaway Inc. has purchased dozens of stocks and businesses. During
that time, the company has outperformed the Standard & Poor’s
500 Index by a wide margin. Buffett achieved his record by
following a disciplined investment strategy. He waits years for
stocks to sell at discounts. Buffett does not hesitate to hold cash
if nothing meets his exacting standards.
Seeing his record, many investors seek to mimic Buffett’s style.
When the master buys a stock, the imitators also make the purchase.
While there is much to learn from Buffett, those who seek to copy
him should beware. Buffett’s approach is difficult to implement,
and even the master himself has made mistakes while using the
strategy. Some trademark Buffett tactics that most
investors should avoid...
Mistake: Holding a concentrated
portfolio. Academics have long argued that investors
should own a wide variety of stocks and other assets. That way, if
some holdings fall, others may rise. Buffett understands the
scholarly research, but prefers to hold "concentrated" positions,
keeping big stakes in just a few industries. Altogether, Berkshire
derived one-fourth of its revenue and half its profit from one
industry -- insurance.
Buffett’s success can be traced to his concentrated approach.
But most investors should tread more carefully. In fact, Buffett
says most investors should diversify extensively. Many part-time
investors should stick with mutual funds. A sound approach is to
buy an index fund, such as one that tracks the S&P 500. While
funds may never outpace the best stock pickers, the index trackers
never finish at the bottom of the standings.
Mistake: Buying nothing but cheap
stocks. Stocks are often thought of as being from one
of two categories -- growth stocks, which have growing earnings and
price multiples that are higher than average... and value stocks,
which have little or no earnings growth and relatively low prices.
Buffett does not fit neatly into any one camp. His portfolio
includes some stocks that may be considered "growth" and others
that fit into the value category.
Some investors may want to follow his example of holding growth
and value. By owning both, you can diversify a portfolio because
growth and value sometimes move in different directions. But for
long-term investments, I prefer putting more than 50% of assets in
value stocks. According to research by Eugene Fama, PhD, professor
of finance at the University of Chicago, and Kenneth French, PhD,
professor of finance at Dartmouth, value stocks tend to outperform
growth over long periods. The best performance comes from stocks
that are in the cheapest 10% of the market as indicated by their
price-to-book ratios (p/b). This is the share price divided by the
book value, a measure of a company’s assets minus its liabilities.
Fama and French found that during the 27 years ending in 1990, the
cheapest 10% of stocks returned 21% annually, compared with the
most expensive 10%, which returned 8% annually.
Mistake: Investing only in big
companies. Because his company is huge, Buffett finds
it more convenient to buy big companies. Otherwise, to put
Berkshire’s assets to use, he would need to own a great many small
companies and it would be difficult to watch so many as closely as
he would like. The result would be an unwieldy portfolio that would
be too hard to manage. But ordinary investors should hold at least
some small-company stocks. According to Fama and French, the
smallest stocks in the market produce the biggest returns. During
the 27-year study, the smallest 10% of stocks grew more than six
times, while the largest 10% returned less than half as much.
Mistake: Favoring losers. As
a value investor, Buffett often buys unloved stocks, picking up
shares that have fallen. He shuns growth stocks that have been
embraced by the markets. But investors seeking to build diverse
portfolios should include at least some growth stars as short-term
holdings.
When stocks have climbed for six months, they have tended on
average to continue climbing for the next 12 months, according to a
study by Narasimhan Jegadeesh, PhD, professor of finance at Emory
University, and Sheridan Titman, PhD, professor of finance at the
University of Texas.
Investors who take advantage of the short-term moves of growth
stocks must be prepared to trade quickly. Studies indicate that
after 12 months, the growth stars begin to lag.
Mistake: Holding for
life. After buying a stock, Buffett holds it
indefinitely. If the shares climb sharply, he still won’t sell. And
if the company doesn’t show earnings growth, he still hesitates to
sell. Buffett often refrains from selling because he believes that
it is difficult to tell the right time for unloading a stock.
Rather than making mistimed moves, he holds.
Because most investors, especially those near retirement age,
can’t wait the decades that Buffett is prepared to wait, they can’t
be so patient. Expensive shares with shaky earnings can deliver
disastrous short-term results.
Before buying a stock, Buffett estimates its intrinsic or fair
value. This requires projecting the company’s cash flow into the
future and then "discounting" it to the present using an
appropriate interest rate that takes the risk of the investment
into consideration.
Measuring fair value precisely isn’t easy, but there are ways to
estimate when a stock’s price has become too rich. Start by
comparing the stock’s p/b to those of the company’s competitors. If
the stock commands a relatively high multiple, then it could be
priced above fair value. Additional
check: Compare the stock’s current p/b to those from the
past. When a stock’s p/b exceeds its typical historical level, it
is another sign that the price may be too high.
Mistake: Sticking with what you
know. Buffett prefers buying companies that are easy
to understand. Until recently, he bought only US companies. He
still has very little international diversification.
Unlike Buffett, most investors should use more international
diversification. Their portfolios should include shares from the
emerging markets of Asia and Latin America. Overseas markets don’t
always move in lockstep with Wall Street.
For convenience, consider owning foreign shares by buying mutual
funds or American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), foreign issues that
trade on US exchanges.
Do Buy Utilities Like Buffett
Until recently, Buffett rarely bought utilities. Now he’s
beginning to invest in power companies. You should, too. Utility
companies should be a core holding in most investors’
portfolios.
Reasons: The best utility
companies can generate steady cash flow. Companies with strong cash
flows are able to pay their bills and invest in expanding their
businesses. Many utility companies also provide solid dividends.
These can provide investors with steady income, an important
consideration during times when share prices are falling and
portfolios are not producing capital gains.