Last
August I wrote:
It's unclear whether the Indians will keep Viraat
around for another three years or accept a carrier deployment gap.
It's kind of interesting to me that, in spite of our newfound tight
friendship with the Indians, I haven't heard a peep about selling
India one of the six supercarriers the US currently has rusting in
mothballs. Although five of the six have been stripped down
(Kennedy is just beginning the process), I can't imagine that
they're in much worse condition than the Russian ship, and even
though older, the US carriers are much larger, more effective
platforms than the Russian Gorshkov will ever be.
And now,
via Drum:
As reports begin to suggest that Russia and India are
too far apart to agree on the Gorshkov refit, speculation grows
that the USA intends to solve India's problem with a stunning offer
during Defense Secretary Gates' imminent visit to india. instead of
retiring and decommissioning its last conventionally-powered
carrier, the 81,800 ton/ 74,200t USS Kitty Hawk [CV-63,
commissioned 1961], would be handed over to India when its current
tour in Japan ends in 2008. The procedure would resemble the
January 2007 "hot transfer" of the amphibious landing ship USS
Trenton [LPD-14], which become INS Jalashva. The cost? This time,
it would be free. As in, $0.
As a number of sources point out, this is a multi-pronged move that
would achieve a number of objectives all at once. First, the offer
removes all Russian negotiating leverage over India by removing the
issues of sunk costs, foreign possession of the Vikramaditya, and
any danger of being left without a carrier. The Indian Navy would
be greatly strengthened, and its ability to police the Indian Ocean
from the Straits of Malacca to South Africa would take a huge leap
forward. Any additional work to upgrade or refurbish the carrier
could be undertaken in India, providing jobs and expertise while
maintaining full national control over the refit. The USA gains
financial benefits of its own, as the Navy avoids the expensive
task of steaming the Kitty Hawk home and decommissioning it.
Americans would almost certainly receive maintenance contracts for
the steam catapults, and possibly for some new electronics, but
those economic benefits pale in comparison to the multi-billion
dollar follow-on wins for Boeing (Super Hornet), Northrop Grumman
(E-2 Hawkeye), and possibly even Lockheed Martin (F-16 E/F, F-35B).
All of which works to cement a growing strategic alliance between
the two countries, and creates deep defense industrial ties as
well.
In short, pretty much everyone wins. Except for the Russians; they
lose.
...I probably should actually explain why I think this is a good
idea. On the US side, it makes good fiscal sense; the Kitty Hawk
would be expensive to tear down and put into reserve, so giving her
to the Indians actually saves money. The F/A-18 deal (or whatever
fighter aircraft we sell) also makes a fair amount of economic
sense, and down the road India may be another F-35 customer. The US
also wins, I think, from an increase in Indian naval capacity; an
extra carrier in the Indian Ocean makes for more secure sea lanes,
etc. On the Indian side, I think it's fair to say that the Kitty
Hawk is significantly more capable than the Gorshkov is likely to
be, even with the Russian refurbishment. Indeed, in a stroke India
will have the second most powerful carrier fleet in the world. I've
seen some concerns regarding the state of the Kitty Hawk; the JFK
was newer, but in terrible condition when she was finally
decommissioned. Again, this is basically a comparison issue, and I
find it hard to believe that Kitty Hawk will be in worse condition
that the Gorshkov. The Kitty Hawk will represent a leap forward in
Indian naval aviation capability.
On the political side, the issues are with Pakistan and Russia. Of
the latter, I could care less; the Russians promised to deliver the
Indians a carrier at a certain time and at a certain price, and
have failed utterly. If the Indians tell the Russians to fuck off
it's their own business, and not ours. The Pakistanis are more of a
concern; as a direct military contribution the Kitty Hawk wouldn't
make that much of a difference in an Indo-Pakistani War, but it
does send a message that we're solidifying a relationship with
India. But I'm okay with that; if we can solidify a friendly
relationship with the world's largest democracy without gutting the
NPT, it's a good thing.