NEW YORK
(CNNMoney.com) -- If you thought home prices were bottoming out,
you may be wrong. They're expected to head a lot lower.
Home values are
predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year,
according to a new forecast of real estate prices.
Overall, the
national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30,
2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis
firm. For the following year, the firm anticipates some
stabilization with prices rising 3.6%.
In the past, Fiserv
anticipated the rapid decline in home-sale prices over the past few
years -- though it underestimated the scope.
Mark Zandi, chief
economist with Moody's Economy.com, agreed with Fiserv's current
assessments. "I think more price declines are coming because the
foreclosure crisis is not over," he said.
In fact, those
areas with high concentrations of foreclosure sales will experience
the steepest drops, according to Fiserv. Miami, for example, is
expected to be the biggest loser. Prices are forecast to plunge
29.9% by next June -- after having already fallen a whopping 48%
during the past three years.
If Fiserv's
forecast holds, Miami real median home price will tumble to
$142,000 by June 2011.
In Orlando, Fla.,
the second-worst performing market, Fiserv anticipates a 27% price
collapse by June 2010, followed by a less severe drop the following
year. In Hanford, Calif., prices are estimated to drop 26.9% and
continue falling 9.5% in 2011; in Naples, Fla., they're expected to
fall 26.8% and then flatten out.
Other notable
losers include Las Vegas, where prices have already fallen 54.6%
and are expected to lose another 23.9% by June 2010. In Phoenix
values have already collapsed by 54% and could fall another 23.4%.
In both cities, Fiserv anticipates the losses to continue into
2011, but they will be less than 5%.
Prices had stabilized
The latest forecast
is at odds with the past few months of the S&P/Case-Shiller
Home Price index. That report has given hope that most housing
markets may have already stabilized because the composite index of
20 cities rose in May, June and July. Nationally, it found that
home prices have gained 3.6%.
Brad Hunter, chief
economist for Metrostudy, which provides housing market information
to the industry, however, expects a change in fortunes,
however.
"I'm afraid
Case-Shiller may be just a temporary reprieve," he said.
He pointed out that
the tax credit for first-time home buyers helped support prices
during the three months of Case-Shiller gains. By the end of
November, the credit will have been used by 1.8 million homebuyers,
at least 355,000 of whom would not have bought a house without the
tax break, according to estimates by the National Association of
Realtors. But the market assistance ends when the credit expires on
Dec. 1.
Hunter also sees a new wave of foreclosure problems coming from
higher priced loans and prime mortgages. He expects a high failure
rate for option ARM loans that were issued to prime customers so
they could buy homes in bubble markets, such as California and
Florida. In those areas, prices for even modest homes had
skyrocketed.
Winners
A handful of metro
areas will buck the trend, according to Fiserv. Six markets will
remain flat, and 33 will actually post gains. The biggest winner
will be the Kennewick, Wash., metro area, where home prices have
ramped up 8.9% over the past three years and are expected to
increase another 3.4% by June 2010.
Fairbanks, Alaska,
prices are anticipated to rise 2.5%, while Anchorage will climb
2.1%. Elmira, N.Y., prices may inch up 1.8%.
The nation's
biggest metro area, New York City, will underperform the nation as
a whole over the next two years, according to Fiserv. Prices, which
have already fallen 21.7% to a median of $375,000, are expected to
fall 17.4% by June 2011.
Home values in the
nation's second largest city, Los Angeles, have fallen 43.3% since
June 2006 to a median of $313,000. They are expected to dive
another 20.2% over by June 2010, and then start to climb in 2011.
Chicago prices, which have fallen 25.2% to $227,000, will drop only
4.1% over the next 12 months and then starting to climb.
The Detroit metro
area now has the dubious distinction of having the lowest home
prices in the country. Prices have dropped 51.7% to a median of
$50,000. They're expected to fall another 9.1% and then
stabilize. 