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If "Economy - 10 Things That Will Change After The Dust Settled" is not shown property. Visit the source link above.
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10 Things That
Will Change |
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What will U.S.
regulatory and financial climate will look like in a few months
from now? It may look remarkably like the climate of five or 10
years ago. |
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When the smoke clears on
the current financial and legislative turmoil -- the economic
landscape will look considerably different than it did just a few
months ago. Here's what we see ahead:
- A much less leveraged
economy. Cash will be king. In practical terms, that means:
Little financing of speculative building and higher pre-leasing
hurdles for commercial real estate. More money up front on merger
and acquisition deals. Bigger mortgage down payments. Lower limits
on credit cards. And higher capital reserves for banks.
And less risk-taking in other ways as well. Borrowers will need
squeaky-clean track records. Financial deals at publicly traded
firms will be more transparent. Buyers will demand a much clearer
understanding of exactly what they're getting.
- More modest rewards --
the natural consequence of less risk taking. Fewer stocks racking
up double-digit gains. Slower appreciation of property values.
Smaller returns on endowments for universities and nonprofits. For
consumers: Fewer second homes, boats, new cars and so on. More
households will live within their means.
- A feast for bottom
fishers. Investors with cash, the patience to wait out a
gradual recovery and a heart stout enough to withstand periodic
wild swings, will be in the catbird seat. They're positioned to
make a bundle, snapping up undervalued assets -- businesses, real
estate, securities, etc. Even out-of-work talent will go cheap to
employers savvy enough to nab it.
- Fewer financial firms,
as big universal banks swallow up midsize regionals.
- More government oversight
of financial markets. Better communication and coordination
among regulatory agencies. Increased disclosure requirements. A
tighter rein on short-selling. Closer supervision of credit rating
agencies. And more.
- But a revival of
private financial firms -- investment banking partnerships and
boutique merger and acquisition houses, for example. Their allure:
minimizing regulatory burdens and filling a need for investors
willing and able to take larger risks for larger returns.
- Simpler forms of
securitizing debt -- plain vanilla ways to spread risk.
Secondary markets for mortgages and other assets won't vanish. But
the instruments bought and sold will be less exotic.
- Greater scrutiny of
executive compensation, whether mandated by Congress or not.
Shareholders are sure to take on the issue more aggressively in the
near term.
- Higher taxes and/or a
bigger federal deficit as Uncle Sam shoulders the load of Wall
Street's toxic debt. Although eventually the government may make
money on the deal, in the short term, the Treasury -- and
therefore, the taxpayers -- will pony up billions.
- Higher long-term interest
rates. Treasury yields must rise to lure capital -- foreign or
domestic -- driving up mortgage and corporate bond rates.
Short-term rates will slide, though, as the Federal Reserve tries
to keep the economy afloat and put banks back on solid
ground.
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